Why Loudoun County in Virginia May Face a Housing Shortage in the Coming Decades

February 11th, 2017

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What does the report say?

Loudoun has been one of the fastest growing counties in America for over a decade now and has a flourishing economy for many years now. With a booming economy, it is only natural that the real estate market would also take off and there will be increased activity as well as demand in the years to come.

However, what may turn into a concern is the revelation in a recent report that the housing inventory won’t be able to keep up pace with the demand generated. The report prepared by the Center for Regional Analysis at the George Mason University in association with Lisa Sturtevant & Associates has predicted a grim future where a shortfall of about 20000 housing units may bedevil the local real estate market over the next 25 years.

That would lead to the rise in prices due to steep competition and result in a seller’s market which may eventually fizzle out when the shortage becomes too acute.

What are the figures?

The report has predicted that between 2015 and 2040, Loudoun will have a need for about 66,604 houses to accommodate 64,355 new households. However, only 48,910 housing units will be constructed and offered during the same period. That means a shortage of about 17,694 units. This isn’t a small figure and the crisis will become more and more severe with time. There is also a shortfall of about 11,200 rental units in the current market.

 

Although the crunch will be manageable till 2020 and 2025, it would intensify after that and would create significant hardships till 2040. Unfortunately, there is no immediate solution to the mismatch between the unrestrained demand and the current city plan that can accommodate a far lesser number of housing units than the demand.

 

The report in question was acquired through a Freedom of Information Act and was presented to the Housing Advisory Board of Supervisors on January 18th this year.

 

There is also a prediction that Loudoun’s affluent demographics and suburban characteristics would mean the demand will be strongest for single family homes and that is where the shortfall will be most severely felt. The report has concluded that in order to keep the economic momentum alive, the county must provide its talented workforce with affordable housing solutions failing which, they might lose their services and the steam would be lost.

 

The demand will be highest in the lower income strata and if they fail to find a solution, this group would face the maximum number of hardships and leave.

 

 

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